Republicans are sort of playing whack-a-mole as they try to defend their supermajority in the Kansas Legislature.
Just one seat in the House. Three in the Senate.
That’s all it takes to break up the GOP supermajority and give Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly some leverage over the bills passed by the Legislature.
National Republicans have known for weeks that the supermajority is at risk, given that the margins are so slim.
Dozens of races have been targeted by outside groups — Democratic and Republican alike — as the parties wage a battle over control of the statehouse.
Here’s a look at some of the more significant races as we head into the very last leg of the election tonight.
These are not intended to be predictions so much as a guide to what races you should be following tonight.
Senate District 10: Democrat Lindsey Constance versus Republican Sen. Mike Thompson. Just how much will Thompson’s local celebrity status as a television weatherman carry the day? Or will Constance’s decision not to knock doors and meet voters during the pandemic cost her? Or could Thompson’s views that human activity does not contribute to global warming come back to bite him? Constance also has jumped on comments Thompson made about the death toll from COVID-19 being “infinitesimally small” and that the pandemic might not be as bad as some believe. These are among the many questions that today’s election will answer in the battle to replace Mary Pilcher-Cook in the Senate.
There are gobs of money being spent here, with the cost of this race likely to surpass $400,000. The two candidates have already spent about $225,000, and the wind industry threw in another $100,000 against Thompson. Americans for Prosperity Action and the Kansas Chamber of Commerce threw in another $39,000, and the Senate Republican Campaign Committee added $32,000. Pilcher-Cook edged Democrat Vicki Hiatt in 2016, giving Democrats hope they can win this Shawnee seat.
Senate District 9: Democrat Stacey Knoell versus Republican Beverly Gossage. Sen. Julia Lynn’s abrupt decision to withdraw from the Senate race opened a door for Democrats. How wide of an opening is the question. Knoell has been campaigning since last year and has raised more than $132,000. Gossage, a former candidate for Kansas insurance commissioner, just got in the race in September. She’s raised $60,000, but she’s getting outside help from the Kansas chamber and Americans for Prosperity. The district, centered in Olathe, has largely leaned Republican for a while. Since 2012, the only Democratic statewide candidate to win here was Gov. Laura Kelly against Kris Kobach.
House District 14: Democrat Angela Schweller versus Republican state Rep. Charlotte Esau. Everyone’s watching this district covering parts of Olathe, Lenexa and Shawnee. Schweller ran in 2018 and came up just short. Now, she’s back for a return engagement. The district is targeted by Americans for Prosperity Action and the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee. Gov. Laura Kelly carried the district by 9 percentage points in 2018. Schweller raised about $62,000 last quarter to about $17,000 for Esau.
House District 15: Democrat Cole Fine versus Republican state Rep. John Toplikar. A political rookie, Fine has proved to be a prodigious fundraiser. He raised about $68,000 last quarter, compared to about $17,000 for the veteran Johnson County politician. Republicans have tried to bloody up Fine as a carpetbagger, but Toplikar struggled to win this Olathe district two years ago against a Democrat facing accusations of emotionally abusing women. Gov. Laura Kelly won the district by 14 percentage points two years ago. It went for President Donald Trump, but only with 49% of the vote, in 2016. This race has been targeted by Americans for Prosperity.
Senate District 28: Democratic state Rep. Jim Ward versus Republican Sen. Mike Petersen. Ward’s campaign rivals the U.S. mint in its ability to produce cash. He’s raised about $247,000 this cycle, including $111,000 last quarter. Petersen raised nearly $83,000 last quarter, but he has only raised $140,000 for this race. And Americans for Prosperity put another $30,000 in the till for Petersen. AFP and the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee both want this seat. Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly won the district two years ago. But it also was won by Republican candidates for state attorney general, insurance commissioner and treasurer. The Democratic secretary of state candidate won the district in 2018.
House District 40: Democrat Joana Scholtz versus Republican state Rep. David French. This race has been marked by Scholtz’s efforts to stop Kansans for Life from publishing digital ads and sending mailers she said were defamatory. Republicans have accused her of not putting disclaimers on her political material, an issue she said she remedied. French is coming off a narrow win in 2018, when he defeated Democratic state Rep. Debbie Deere by 70 votes. Gov. Laura Kelly carried the district by 3 percentage points, but the district has leaned red for a while. President Donald Trump carried the district in 2016, and former Gov. Sam Brownback won it in 2014. Scholtz raised about $56,000 last quarter to nearly $22,000 for French.
Senate District 30: Democrat Melissa Gregory versus Republican Rep. Renee Erickson. This is the seat now held by Senate President Susan Wagle, who recently acknowledged the district was turning blue in comments she made that went viral when she said election boundaries need to be redrawn so it would be more Republican. Gregory has deep Democratic ties. She worked as an aide to former Congressman Dan Glickman and former Gov. Kathleen Sebelius. Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly carried the district by 14 percentage points over Republican Kris Kobach in 2018’s governor’s race. The district went for President Donald Trump in 2016 and former Gov. Sam Brownback in 2014.
Senate District 11: Democrat Joy Koesten versus Republican Rep. Kellie Warren. This is a rematch of the House 28 Republican primary from 2018 that Warren won by more than 600 votes. Well, this is a general election and Koesten is now a Democrat. Both candidates are piling up cash as they run in this southern Johnson County district. Koesten has raised about $193,000 for the cycle, while Warren has hauled in about $190,000.
House District 41: Democrat Mike Griswold versus Republican Pat Proctor. Republicans are trying to take a seat back that has been held by Democratic state Rep. Jeff Pittman, who is running for the state Senate. Proctor has been campaigning for the Leavenworth seat for a year. Using a mix of personal loans and contributions, the retired Army colonel has amassed about $90,000 this cycle. Griswold, the mayor of Leavenworth, raised about $40,000 this year, although he did have a primary campaign. The district went for Gov. Laura Kelly in 2018, although it sided with President Donald Trump in 2016 and Gov. Sam Brownback in 2014.
House District 37: Democrat Aaron Coleman versus Democratic state Rep. Stan Frownfelter (write-in) and Republican Kristina Smith (write-in). Coleman has a lot of political baggage, whether it’s revenge porn, abusing an ex-girlfriend or being arrested for threatening to shoot another student. Nevertheless, he has to be considered the front-runner against two write-in candidates, including Frownfelter, who lost the Democratic primary by 14 votes. Nevertheless, Frownfelter is trying to make Kansas history. He is trying to become the second incumbent legislator to win reelection despite losing a primary.
House District 86: Democrat Stephanie Byers versus Republican Cyndi Howerton. Byers is making a bid to become Kansas’ first transgender lawmaker. Byers is a former band and orchestra teacher at Wichita North High School. She could become the fifth transgender candidate elected to a state legislature. The district is heavily Democratic. The governor won here in 2018 by 26 percentage points.
House District 98: Democrat Steve Crum versus Republican state Rep. Ron Howard. Crum is looking to take back the seat he lost two years ago, when he came up 130 votes short against Howard. Crum raised about $66,000 last quarter to $12,850 for Howard. This district tends to lean Republican. It went for Kris Kobach by less than a percentage point in 2018. It also went for the president in 2016 and Gov. Sam Brownback inn 2014.
