Republican leadership at the Kansas Capitol on Wednesday greeted the election of a new Democratic governor with caution, warning that they would hold Laura Kelly to her pledge not to raise taxes.
Promising to change the tenor at the statehouse following eight years of Republican leadership, Kelly will move into the governor’s office as a newly elected Kansas House will tilt the Legislature in a more conservative direction.
Democrats lost six seats in the House on Tuesday night, according to complete but unofficial results. Republicans lost five seats.
If the results stand after provisional ballots are counted, the Republicans will control an 86-39 majority in the House.
Meanwhile, it’s believed that the number of conservatives in the Republican caucus will grow to about 53 from about 44 currently although the margin fluctuates depending on the issue.
The Senate could get more conservative depending on who’s picked to replace Insurance Commissioner-elect Vicki Schmidt in the Senate.
Former conservative lawmaker Joe Patton is considered to be a leading candidate to land the seat.
Already, Republican legislative leaders are dubious about Kelly’s willingness to work with conservatives on her agenda, which includes expanding Medicaid, putting more money into schools, and increasing funding for roads and other core taxpayer services.
“We’ll work with her as long as she doesn’t want to bankrupt the state,” Senate President Susan Wagle said in an interview Wednesday.
“As long as she doesn’t want to commit to programs that will induce more people to become welfare dependent and as long as she doesn’t want to put a lot of regulations on business, we’ll work with her.”
Kelly campaigned on her willingness to work with Republicans — she received endorsements from former Gov. Bill Graves and former U.S. Sen. Nancy Kassebaum, among others — but Wagle questions if the new governor is willing to work with conservatives.
“She’s worked with moderate Republicans on legislation,” Wagle said. “There’s been very little communication with conservatives.”
Kelly wasn’t giving interviews Wednesday, but one of her top allies in the Senate believes Kelly can build a consensus on an agenda and form a coalition to get it passed.
“My guess is there’s some disappointment over the election results. She won by a pretty good margin,” Senate Minority Leader Anthony Hensley said of Kelly’s 5-percentage-point win.
“It sends a signal to people we’re going to have to have a period of bipartisan coalition-building. There’s nobody better suited to do that than Laura Kelly,” Hensley said. “She’s had a reputation of being able to work across the aisle.”
Early Wednesday morning, House Speaker Ron Ryckman Jr. issued a statement making it clear that the Republican caucus has no interest is raising taxes to help pay for Kelly’s budget priorities.
“I’ve aways been told there’s no such thing as a free lunch,” Ryckman said in a statement. “But that’s exactly what Laura Kelly promised folks on the campaign trail.
“She ran on fiscal conservatism — no new taxes. We are going to hold her to that promise and we know voters will, too.
Some conservatives interviewed Wednesday aren’t persuaded by Kelly’s margin of victory, pointing out that she received less than 50 percent of the vote in a five-candidate field.
Senate Majority Leader Jim Denning said he knows Kelly well from serving with her on key legislative committees.
He suspects Kelly will want to end the practice of moving money out of the highway department to pay for general operating expenses – an issue she campaigned on. He also thinks she’ll want to fund the state’s retirement system sufficiently.
Denning said he thinks lawmakers will work with her on reducing the sales tax on food, although he thinks it will need to be paid for from the proceeds of a sales tax on internet sales — now permitted under a U.S. Supreme Court ruling from last spring.
“She said she was going to balance her budget without raising taxes, so there’s no way to cut the food sales tax and balance the budget,” Denning said in an interview Wednesday.
“Everybody’s going to vote for it,” Denning said of the food sales tax cut. “But she’s going to have a real serious budget problem if she doesn’t offset it with an internet sales tax.”
Kelly has vowed to push for expansion of Medicaid, a measure that will likely run into friction in the Republican-controlled Legislature.
“She’ll have to sit down with us and tell us what her plan is,” Denning said. “Straight Medicaid expansion is still a nonstarter. If Laura wants to sit down and bring something to the table, she’s going to have to figure out how to pay for it.”
The majority leader also cautioned against rushing to dismantle the privatized Medicaid program known as KanCare, something else she talked about during the governor’s race.
Denning said there is a tax levied against the managed-care companies that would need to be accounted for in any restructuring of the program.
He said that tax — it brings in about $100 million a year for the Medicaid program — would be lost if the current program is replaced.
Democrats believe that Kelly’s decisive victory is a warning shot that the Kansas electorate will not settle for a do-nothing Legislature.
They suggest that a Republican caucus that won’t budge on Kelly’s agenda is politically dangerous, especially with her margin of victory.
“There is political credibility in working together,” said House Minority Leader Jim Ward. “You take a very dangerous risk by being an obstructionist in Kansas.
“If you look at the election, there’s a good chance there could be political consequences for not trying to find some grounds of commonality.”
