Looking to bust up the Republican supermajority in the Kansas House, national Democrats are focusing their efforts on a dozen House seats that will likely be battleground areas later this fall.
The National Democratic Redistricting Committee, chaired by former Attorney General Eric Holder, is homing in on 12 Kansas House districts, four now held by Republicans and eight held by Democrats.
The committee’s effort overlaps with some of the same districts targeted by national Republicans as both parties wage a battle in Kansas and nationally to gain ground ahead of the approaching redistricting battles.
The Democratic redistricting committee wants to cut into the 84-member supermajority that Republicans now hold in the House, giving Gov. Laura Kelly a stronger position when lawmakers start redrawing election boundaries after the 2020 census.
The Democrats just need one seat to officially end the GOP supermajority, although Republicans have already shown an inability to reach that 84-vote mark on some key issues such as taxes and abortion.
Kelly’s veto has already been sustained on a couple occasions when the House couldn’t muster the 84 votes needed for an override. It couldn’t get to the 84 votes needed to pass a constitutional amendment on abortion.
“We’re trying to get that one seat. Nothing more. Nothing less,” said Garrett Arwa, director of campaigns for the National Democratic Redistricting Committee.
Arwa said the NDRC was looking to help Democratic incumbents who might be targeted by the GOP as well as areas where Democrats might gain ground.
“Any of those races that come off the board makes it harder to get that one” seat, Arwa said of the Democratic incumbents.
“It’s always important for us to have that expanded battlefield of potential pickups,” he said.
“While our goal is clearly stated of breaking the veto-proof majority in that chamber, it doesn’t mean additional gains above and beyond that could not be possible,” he said.
“We wanted to play in the smartest, biggest battlefield possible just to make sure we have all avenues for getting that one (seat) and potentially more open to us.”
The committee is putting about $1.5 million into more than 102 races across eight states, including Kansas, Wisconsin, Ohio and Texas.
It is eyeing four races in suburban Johnson County with strong Democratic leanings, including District 20 where moderate Republican state Rep. Jan Kessinger is engaged in a primary fight with conservative challenger Jane Dirks.
The winner would face Democrat Mari-Lynn Poskin, who raised $21,519 in 2019 and had $17,735 on hand at the end of 2019.
The district went for former Gov. Sam Brownback in 2014, Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Kelly in the 2018 governor’s race.
It also is looking at House District 17, where moderate state Rep. Tom Cox defeated a Democratic challenger by 330 votes in 2018. Cox is now running for the state Senate.
Democrat Jo Ella Hoye, a gun safety advocate with deep community roots, is seeking to replace Cox. She would face Republican Kristine Sapp in the general election. Hoye raised $20,990 in 2019 and had $17,571 on hand at the end of the year.
The district went for former Democratic gubernatorial candidate Paul Davis in 2014, Clinton in 2016 and Kelly in 2018.
The Democrats are also looking to gain ground in two districts where Republicans are believed to be vulnerable:
- House District 14, where Republican state Rep. Charlotte Esau is facing a rematch against Democrat Angela Schweller. Esau defeated Schweller two years ago by 175 votes. The district went for Brownback in 2014, President Donald Trump in 2016 and Kelly in 2018.
- House District 15, where Republican state Rep. John Toplikar is facing a challenge from Democrat Cole Fine. Toplikar defeated Democrat Chris Haulmark by 236 votes in 2018, even though the challenger had been accused of emotionally abusing women. The district went for Brownback in 2014, Trump in 2016 and Kelly in 2018.
The committee also is playing defense in some areas, such as House District 3 in southeast Kansas, where Democratic Rep. Monica Murnan is facing opposition from former GOP state Rep. Chuck Smith. He lost with about 48% of the vote in 2016.
It’s also is defending in House District 72, where Democratic state Rep. Tim Hodge narrowly turned back a robust challenge from Republican Steve Kelly by 88 votes two years ago. The district went for Davis in 2014, Trump in 2016 and Kelly in 2018.
The Democrats and Republicans are focused on many of the same races.
Earlier, the Republican State Leadership Committee, which bills itself as the largest caucus of GOP state leaders in the country, announced it was targeting nine seats in the Kansas House and five in the Kansas Senate.
“Radical tax and spend D.C. Democrats are out of touch with Kansas voters,” House Majority Leader Dan Hawkins said of the national Democrats targeting Kansas.
“Kansans know that House Republicans have fought to defend innocent life and the 2nd Amendment, cut taxes, and protect Kansas jobs and businesses,” he said.
“This election is an opportunity to strengthen our majorities in the Kansas House and Senate to stop Gov. Kelly and her radical D.C. friends from breaking even more empty promises they‘ve made to voters.”
The RSLC is concentrating its efforts on seats that are now held by Democrats in districts that went for Trump in 2016.
Like the Democrats, the RSLC has identified Murnan and Hodge’s districts as targets.
Both groups are zeroing in on House District 18 represented by Democrat Cindy Neighbor, House District 48 represented by Democrat Jennifer Day and House District 102 represented by Democrat Jason Probst.
Neighbor’s district has leaned Democratic in recent years but was represented by Republican state Rep. John Rubin as recently as 2015 and 2016.
Day is defending House District 48 in Johnson County that was represented by Democrat David Benson, who abruptly resigned earlier this year.
Benson won the seat in 2018 over a Republican incumbent by fewer than than 100 votes.
Other Democrats getting support from the NDRC include Reps. Virgil Weigel in District 56, Stephanie Yeager in House District 96 and Linda Featherston, who is running to replace Rep. Cindy Holscher in House District 16.
The approaching elections, Arwa said, are important to give Kelly the ability to veto election districts that are drawn in a way so that they favor Republicans.
It’s a battle that’s being waged by both parties, he said.
“The redistricting fight to come isn’t new to anybody,” he said. “Everybody is well aware of how organized Republican interests were going into 2010 and subsequently the 2011 redistricting process.”
Breaking the veto-proof majority, he said, enhances the governor’s influence in the redistricting process.
“We do think the governor is going to be a very important goalie for fair maps,” he said.
“We want to make sure that Democrats have the numbers in both chambers…to be able to uphold the governor’s role in this process.”
