As if the pandemic didn’t complicate Laura Kelly’s first term as governor enough.
Now, she must navigate a Republican-dominated Legislature that hung onto its supermajority in a fiercely waged campaign against Democrats across the state.
The governor will have to work with a more conservative-leaning Legislature, whose leaders she has criticized for putting lives at risk and playing politics during the pandemic.
It’s not been an easy relationship leading up to the election as the governor struggled with Republican lawmakers who wanted to limit her emergency powers during the pandemic.
It’s a rift that some say is rooted in the governor’s effort last spring to put limits on religious gatherings to control the spread of the coronavirus.
The governor’s now facing an empowered Republican caucus that not only held onto its supermajority but also will expand it slightly in one chamber.
It comes after months of the governor using her position to hold weekly news briefings watched by thousands on Facebook where she addressed the health emergency facing the state and, at times, criticized Republican lawmakers.
The governor’s attacks have rubbed some Republicans raw because they think she hasn’t done enough to work with them during the health crisis despite her public criticism.
“I’m sure she probably looked at the totals of Tuesday night and said, ‘Wow,'” House Majority Leader Dan Hawkins said of the election.
“Now, how does she take that? Does she take that and say, ‘I’m going to have to figure a new way to deal with these people’?” he said.
“Or is she going to continue business as usual? If she does, she’s probably going to continue to get pushback pretty consistently.”
The governor, a former state senator, has signaled a willingness to get along with the Republican-led Legislature.
“From the day I walked onto the Senate floor, I realized that the only way I was going to get anything done and be productive as a legislator was to go across the aisle and form relationships, work with people to pass good policy,” Kelly told reporters this week.
“I will continue to operate in exactly the same way.”
There’s an emerging view that difficulties lie ahead for the governor as conservatives reassert control in the statehouse.
“This is going to make it very tough for the governor going forward,” said Democratic National Committeeman Christopher Reeves.
“It means Republicans are likely to throw out legislation that they know she’ll veto just so they can override a veto to show their strength,” he said
“There are a lot of things Republicans can do here that can be really interesting over the next two years,” he said
But the issues for the governor go deeper.
The governor also will lose a key floor leader with Senate Minority Leader Anthony Hensley’s defeat after serving more than 40 years at the Capitol.
Hensley’s deep knowledge about legislative history, understanding of political tactics and the legislative process will leave a void in the Democratic caucus.
And Kelly wasn’t helped by the fact that the leading state Democrat on the ballot — U.S. Senate candidate Barbara Bollier — received 42% of the vote after raising $24 million against a Republican not named Kris Kobach.
“I do think Kelly has to think about her approach with the Legislature,” said Washburn University political scientist Bob Beatty.
“And to be fair, the leaders of the Legislature have to think about it, as well,” he said.
“Compromise is possible and given these results, Laura Kelly is going to be open to it,” he said. “Maybe the bigger question is the Republican leadership.”
Republican state Sen. Ty Masterson, a leading candidate to become the next Senate president, said the governor’s team will need to broaden its approach to dealing with GOP legislators as it tries to advance its agenda.
“They have chosen to try to relate to our chamber only through our leadership,” Masterson said of the past two years. “I would suggest they focus on a broader group than just that.”
Masterson said the supermajorities in both chambers will “make it more difficult for (the governor) to move through any radical portions of her agenda.
“It will be interesting to see how we relate,” Masterson said. “There is significant change in both chambers.”
The GOP in the statehouse will now have a clearer path to pursue its policies knowing that it will be tougher for the governor to stop them.
Consider what could be upcoming during the next two years:
Redistricting: This is what the 2020 legislative campaigns were largely about for Democrats — break the supermajority so the governor could stop Republicans from drawing election boundaries designed to help the GOP. Outgoing Senate President Susan Wagle predicted the possibility recently, suggesting a congressional district could be drawn to take out Democratic U.S. Rep. Sharice Davids, who was just elected to a second term.
Abortion: A renewed effort to overturn a historic state Supreme Court decision that found the right to an abortion is embedded in the state constitution is possible. The expanded supermajority, especially with more conservatives in the House, makes passage more likely after it was defeated earlier this year when it was blocked in the House by moderate lawmakers.
Medicaid expansion: The prospects for the governor’s top priority look dim at this point, especially after six Republican supporters in the Senate lost in the GOP primary to more conservative opponents who ultimately were elected.
Budget: Would the GOP-controlled Legislature go along with the governor’s plan to fix a budget hole caused by the coronavirus? The economic picture for Kansas is improving, but any effort by the governor to raise taxes to repair the budget could be rejected in favor of spending cuts. A $152 million budget deficit is projected for fiscal year 2022, down from the original estimate of $1.4 billion. The state also could be bailed out if Congress gives money to the states to fill budget holes caused by the pandemic.
Judges: Would conservatives push a constitutional amendment changing how state Supreme Court judges are selected by giving the governor the power to make the appointments with Senate confirmation? Masterson has favored the idea, and an expanded supermajority in the House might make passage of the amendment more doable.
Taxes: Republicans could revisit efforts to return millions in revenue that the state was expected to collect as a result of changes in the federal tax code signed into law by President Donald Trump. The governor twice vetoed tax legislation in 2019, saying it would be fiscally reckless. Legislators also could resurrect a bill requiring local governments to hold hearings and vote to accept extra revenues coming from increased property taxes. The governor vetoed that bill, as well.
Schools: Would a conservative Legislature pass school-choice legislation, such as one proposal to allow students to take their state aid and transfer it to a private school if in-person instruction is not available during the pandemic?
In short, Democrats are anticipating difficult times.
“I think the governor, as well as the Legislature, have rough sailing ahead,” said Democratic state Rep. John Carmichael.
“Certainly not all is lost,” Carmichael said. “There will be occasions for us to make inroads and advance progressive ideas and, hopefully, stop bad ideas.
“But the Republicans have, in all likelihood, won this election in Kansas, and elections have consequences and those consequences are not necessarily going to be good for progressive Kansans,” he said in an interview hours after the election.
House Speaker Ron Ryckman Jr. left room open for collaboration with the governor.
“We want to work with the governor on the issues that Kansans are asking for,” Ryckman said. “We’re hopeful that can happen, particularly when it comes to getting our schools, our economy and our lives safely back to normal,” he said.
House Minority Leader Tom Sawyer was optimistic that the governor and legislative leadership could find a way to work together.
He noted that there have been signs of improvement lately, namely a private meeting where the governor and legislative leadership met virtually to discuss the pandemic.
Many of those familiar with the meeting said it went well, without the discord that’s been seen in meetings of the State Finance Council.
The virtual meeting was followed by a State Finance Council meeting that also didn’t break down in political acrimony.
“It seems like it’s been better lately,” Sawyer said of the governor’s relationship with Republican leaders.
“It’s just two meetings, but it was encouraging,” he said. “Hopefully, the communication will improve between them all.
“I am just hopeful they can find some common ground, and we can get some things done.”
