As candidates campaign for the statehouse across Kansas, another race has been quietly playing out on a larger scale that will help determine leadership in the Kansas Senate.
Senate Vice President Jeff Longbine and Republican state Sen. Ty Masterson have been working in the background of state Senate races to help the candidates who will likely position them to become the next Senate president.
“I think anybody who knows much about the Senate knows Jeff is out trying to get or keep liberal Republicans elected, and I am out trying to get or keep center-right conservatives elected. I think it’s pretty widely understood,” Masterson said.
Right now, there are 29 Republicans in the Kansas Senate, although it is anticipated some of those seats could turn blue in the fall — another factor complicating the leadership elections.
Nineteen members of the current class of senators generally fall into the conservative camp, although the number can fluctuate depending on the issue.
Similarly, there are 10 senators who could be considered moderate Republicans, though that number, too, can shift.
And just because a senator is on one side or the other doesn’t necessarily guarantee they’re a vote for Longbine or Masterson.
As Tuesday’s election approached, the focus has been on 11 Senate primaries pitting conservatives against moderates.
Seven of those primary races involve Senate seats held by moderate Republicans, including Sens. John Skubal, Mary Jo Taylor, Ed Berger, Randall Hardy, John Doll, Dan Goddard and Bruce Givens.
Three races involve Senate seats now held by conservative Republicans, including Sens. Eric Rucker, Rob Olson and Mike Thompson.
A fourth primary will decide which Republican faces Democratic state Sen. Tom Hawk in the general election.
The outcome of those primary races will be watched very carefully Tuesday night.
And while the results won’t guarantee the Senate presidency for anyone, it will give some indication of the roadmap ahead for Masterson and Longbine.
Longbine shies away from talking about the Senate presidency, saying he only wants to stay in leadership and keep the Republican veto-proof majority in the Senate.
“Leadership races will work themselves out later,” he said. “My focus has been mainly around recruiting and helping people with their races.”
He declined to say who he’s helping, although Masterson acknowledged that he’s supporting candidates such as state Rep. J.R. Claeys against Hardy, state Rep. Alicia Straub against Taylor, state Rep. Kellie Warren against Skubal and Michael Fagg against Givens. He would like to see Rucker reelected.
Longbine said there is no particular type of candidate that he is supporting, although some believe he can appeal to both sides of the Republican spectrum.
“I have worked well with any flavor of Republicans,” Longbine said.
“I think what we need to make sure we do is come together as Republicans after the primary and focus on how we win general elections and how we maintain the numbers we have in the Senate,” he said.
During this primary cycle, Longbine said he has worked with candidates who might be considered moderate and candidates who might be considered conservative.
“I am trying to help any Republican who wants help,” Longbine said. “But our main focus needs to be the general election. Ultimately, who wins in the general will decide who’s going to be our next leadership.”
Some agree that it may be premature to talk about Senate leadership elections.
Both Longbine and Masterson have general election opponents after all, and there are many other election battles to be waged in the fall.
“I think it’s way too early. There’s so much more to happen in the general election,” said one veteran statehouse lobbyist who was reluctant to talk about leadership elections publicly.
“Depending on how the general elections go can determine as much about leadership as anything,” the lobbyist said
Interviews with those familiar with the contours of Senate politics indicate that moderates will need to win four or five of the seats they hold now to give Longbine a shot at the presidency. Other suggest incumbent moderates will need a sweep.
“It would be hard for the Truth Caucus to make a serious push for Senate president if three to four mods win on Tuesday,” said one source deeply familiar with Senate politics.
The Truth Caucus is chaired by Masterson. It’s affiliated political action committee — the Kansas Truth PAC — has been spending money to help conservative Senate candidates.
Thousands of dollars from outside interests have been pumped into those races from both sides of the moderate-conservative split. Here’s a look at some of the big ones:
- In District 11, Skubal is fending off a robust challenge from Warren. In this race, the Kansas Chamber of Commerce and Americans for Prosperity have spent about $52,000 combined for Warren. The wind industry and the highway contractors have spent about $36,000 for Skubal. There is also evidence that the dark money group Future Vision, with ties to a Topeka banker, has been aiding Skubal.
- In District 33, Taylor faces a challenge from Straub. A lot of outside money has come into this race as well, including about $40,000 from highway contractors for Taylor and about $55,000 for Straub from the Kansas chamber and Americans for Prosperity. Future Vision also has been involved in this race for Taylor.
- In District 34, money is flowing in to help Berger and his challenger, anesthesiologist Mark Steffen. The chamber has put $42,000 in this race for Steffen. The highway contractors have put about $16,000 into this race for Berger.
- In District 14, Givens is up against former El Dorado Mayor Fagg. The Kansas chamber and Americans for Prosperity have put about $60,000 combined into this race for Fagg. The wind sector and the highway contractors have put $34,000 into this race for Givens.
- In District 24, Claeys has been using his support for President Donald Trump and other conservative policies to knock out Hardy. The chamber put at least $30,000 into this race for Claeys. Future Vision has left its footprints in this race for Hardy, as well.
Other moderates defending their seats include Goddard against former state Rep. Virgil Peck and Doll against Finney County Commissioner Lon Pishny.
The path to the Senate presidency isn’t limited to only those races, however.
Some conservative senators, such as Rucker, Thompson and Olson, are playing defense in the primary election.
Many are watching Rucker’s race against moderate state Rep. Brenda Dietrich, thinking the outcome there could be another factor in the race for the Senate presidency.
Some of those interviewed say that Longbine’s biggest hurdle to the presidency will be the primary. Conversely, Masterson’s toughest obstacle will likely be the general.
If conservatives score wins in the primary, they will likely then find themselves against some well-financed Democrats, especially in suburban Johnson County.
And conservative losses in the general election hurt Masterson’s chances for the presidency, some said.
“Ty’s got more vulnerability in the general than he has in the primary,” said another strategist speaking anonymously to explain the backdrop of the leadership race.
“Longbine can lose it Tuesday night,” the source said. “Where Ty can lose it is in the general.”
If Thompson wins, for example, he would find himself against Democratic Shawnee City Councilwoman Lindsey Constance, who has been campaigning for about a year and is sitting on about $100,000 in cash.
If Warren wins, she would find herself in a rematch of a House race with former state Rep. Joy Koesten, who has already stockpiled about $76,000 in cash.
In District 28, Republican state Sen. Mike Petersen will face state Rep. Jim Ward in the general election. Ward had about $124,000 on hand as of July 23.
Meanwhile, in Senate District 5, conservative Republican Kevin Braun is going up against Democratic state Rep. Jeff Pittman, while state Rep. Renee Erickson is going to have a Democratic opponent in the general in Senate District 30.
On the Democratic side, two Republican challengers are trying to take seats away from incumbents: state Rep. Willie Dove is challenging Sen. Tom Holland in District 3, and Gov. Laura Kelly’s old Senate seat is now open.
Kelly and Holland won their seats in 2016 with about 52% of the vote, giving some reason for optimism that Democrats can win those seats.
“Everything is murky,” one source said. “The general election does matter a lot. The general is up in the air. I don’t have any read as far as that goes.”
