A new poll done by a Kansas Republican consultant shows Democrat Barbara Bollier up on GOP Congressman Roger Marshall by a little more than 3 percentage points in the race for the U.S. Senate.
The survey of about 3,100 registered voters by JD Johannes shows Bollier with support from about 45.4% of those polled, compared to about 41.9% for Marshall.
Libertarian candidate Jason Buckley received 1.6%. About 11.7% said they were undecided. The poll, done with automated calls, had a margin of error of 1.75 percentage points.
Johannes said the race was still in a state of flux, especially with outside groups funneling millions of dollars into the race.
His polling also found that Congresswoman Sharice Davids was the only Democrat leading in any of the state’s four congressional races, and with a healthy 20 percentage point margin.
The poll was done Sept. 29 and 30 by Johannes, who runs a firm called VCreek/AMG, which has done work for Republican U.S. Rep. Steve Russell of Oklahoma and Americas PAC, a super political action committee that works for conservative causes.
Well regarded in Republican circles, Johannes is working for the Americas PAC this election cycle, among others, but doesn’t have any races in Kansas.
Johannes, who polled for Kris Kobach in the 2018 governor’s race and saw early on that the former secretary of state was in trouble, said he did this poll on his own volition as a matter of curiosity.
While Bollier’s lead is just outside the margin of error, but Johannes said the race is still fluid and can easily change with heavy spending on political advertising.
“This is a dynamic environment,” Johannes said in the polling memo.
“With well-funded campaigns and multiple outside groups involved, the top line numbers are likely to change before Election Day,” he said.
Johannes compared the Senate race to the 2018 campaign for Kansas governor, when Kobach failed to lock down enough Republican support.
“Marshall is underperforming among Republicans drawing support from only 60% of registered GOP respondents,” Johannes said in the polling memo.
“The trend lines are similar to the 2018 governor’s election,” Johannes wrote.
“A key difference is that Marshall has the resources behind him to potentially deliver enough precisely focused repetitions on message to gain ground among Republicans by defining himself favorably in contrast to Bollier.”
Johannes said he believes Bollier has consolidated her base and incremental gains may be more difficult to achieve.
“Bollier is in a strong position heading into advance voting with a clear GOTV universe,” Johannes said.
“If she maintains this lead her campaign can bank early votes making it even more of a challenge for Marshall to gain ground.”
Johannes’ poll comes after two other polls were made public last week, including one released by Bollier’s campaign and another released by a super PAC backing Marshall.
The Bollier poll of 600 likely voters was done Sept. 24-27. It showed similar results, with Bollier leading Marshall by 2 percentage points.
Another poll done by the Keep Kansas Great PAC showed Marshall leading Bollier by 4 percentage points. That poll was the oldest, conducted Sept. 15 and 16.
Like Johannes’ poll, the Keep Kansas Great poll also suggested that Marshall was underperforming with Republicans.
However, also like the Keep Kansas Great poll, it said that Bollier may have maxed out in her support with little room to make substantially more gains.
Johannes also polled in each of the state’s four congressional districts and found these results with smaller sample sizes:
- Former Lt. Gov. Tracey Mann leading Democrat Kali Barnett 56% to 25% in the 1st District, with a sample size of 761 registered voters and a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points.
- Kansas Treasurer Jake LaTurner leading Democratic Topeka Mayor Michelle De La Isla 47% to 36% in the 2nd District, with a sample size of 739 registered voters and a margin of error of 3.6 percentage points.
- Congresswoman Davids leading Republican challenger Amanda Adkins 56% to 36% in the 3rd District, with a sample of 712 registered voters and a margin of error of 3.6 percentage points.
- Republican Congressman Ron Estes leading Democrat Laura Lombard 51% to 37% in the 4th District, with a sample of 842 registered voters and a margin of error of 3.3 percentage points.
Johannes also asked Kansas voters about the Supreme Court nomination of Amy Coney Barrett.
They were asked how much they supported President Donald Trump’s and Sen. Mitch
McConnell’s plan to vote on a new Supreme Court nominee before the election.
- 51% indicated they supported the plan.
- 45% said they opposed the idea.
- 4% said they were not sure.
Johannes also asked the question in the context of Republicans refusing to act on President Barack Obama’s Supreme Court nominee in 2016.
“With that history in mind, do you think it is right or wrong for Republicans in the Senate to hold hearings and vote of President Trump’s Supreme Court Nominee this close to the election?” the poll asked.
Forty-six percent said Republicans were doing the wrong thing, while 45% said the GOP was acting appropriately. Nine percent were unsure.
