Former Gov. Bill Graves’ decision to cross Republican Party lines and endorse Democratic nominee Laura Kelly in the Kansas governor’s race sent a very important message to moderate Republican voters this week.
It’s OK. You can vote for the Democrat.
It’s a message that experts say Kelly needs to win as she cobbles together a coalition of Democrats, Republicans and unaffiliated voters to emerge from a five-candidate field to become Kansas’ 48th governor.
Kelly is competing for moderate Republican voters — there’s already a Republicans for Kelly Facebook page — with independent Greg Orman in the race to beat out Republican Secretary of State Kris Kobach.
Graves’ endorsement of Kelly is more significant because of its appeal to moderate Republican voters than just because he endorsed a Democratic candidate, some political experts and observers said.
“Bill Graves is the first clarion call,” said former Republican Senate President Dick Bond of Overland Park, a Kelly supporter. “There will be a lot more Republican leaders and former leaders who will follow Graves in this effort.”
Graves’ endorsement generated a lot of buzz on social media after the announcement landed in email in-boxes about 10 a.m. Tuesday.
While Graves has taken up sides against the conservative wing of the GOP before, this announcement was seen in some quarters as a potential game-changer that at the very least hurts Orman in the short term and ultimately affects Kobach.
“Graves is the biggest symbol for moderate Republicans that you can have,” Washburn University political scientist Bob Beatty said of the former two-term governor from 1995 to 2003.
Neither Kobach, Orman nor the state Republican Party was impressed with the endorsement and questioned its effectiveness from a politician who hasn’t held office in Kansas in 15 years.
“These endorsements are just the jayvee battle between Orman and Kelly,” Republican Party Executive Director Jim Joice said in an email.
“While they play the ‘Who is the Spoiler’ game, Kris Kobach is busy making history flipping unions and working with President Trump to bring jobs back to hard working Kansans,” Joice said.
The goal is clearly to blunt efforts by Orman to round up support from moderate Republicans, experts said. The Graves endorsement could reassure moderate Republicans who might be anxious about voting for a Democrat.
“It tells them that if somebody like Bill Graves is going to do that, it’s all right for them to do that, too,” said former Republican state Senate President Steve Morris.
“I think it’s probably pretty effective,” he said. “I have not talked to a moderate Republican yet that likes Kobach.”
Morris, however, acknowledges that there are moderate Republicans who like Orman. How much support there is for Orman is unclear, he said.
“I’ve sensed a lot of support in the last few weeks going to Laura from Republicans,” he said.
Four years ago, Democratic candidate Paul Davis touted the support of more than 100 moderate Republicans — including many former legislators — in his bid to unseat former Republican Gov. Sam Brownback.
Davis lost that race despite the support of many former moderate lawmakers who had grown disillusioned with the Brownback policies on education and taxes.
Political scientists said Graves’ endorsement in this race is different from 2014. With Graves, you don’t need 100 moderate Republicans on stage.
“Most people who aren’t political junkies had never heard a lot of these state legislators, where the governor has more name recognition,” said Emporia State political scientist Michael Smith.
“Graves is more likely to have peripheral voters who actually heard his name and can place him than a bunch of state legislators who’ve been retired for 20 years.”
Simply put, Kobach and the Republican Party aren’t impressed.
Even eight years ago, when Graves came to Kansas to campaign for moderate legislative candidates fighting the Brownback machine, conservatives thought his time had passed as the state’s political climate shifted.
Among the candidates Graves helped in that election was former Republican state Sen. Tim Owens, who lost his bid for re-election against Jim Denning. Owens now serves as the Orman campaign’s treasurer.
Two years ago, Graves backed two Democrats, one against conservative Republican incumbent Larry Alley in the Senate and another against conservative Republican Ron Highland in the House. The Democrats lost both races.
“I think it’s becoming laughable that (Graves) even considers himself a Republican the ways he’s constantly working on behalf of Democratic candidates,” Kobach said in an interview Wednesday. “I don’t think it really means that much. I think people would be surprised if Bill Graves does something different.”
Orman’s campaign sent out the same statement Wednesday that it sent to reporters Tuesday without addressing the strategy of trying to cut the independent off from moderate support.
“It’s back to the future with Laura Kelly,” the Orman campaign said in a statement. “The way to move forward is to move forward. Not to look in the rear view mirror.”
Bond says the political atmosphere is different even now from 2012 when Graves campaigned unsuccessfully for moderate candidates. He said the divisive politics of President Donald Trump and Kobach have changed that.
He said the endgame strategy is simple: “Stop Kobach.”
“You have to worry about Orman bleeding off moderate Republicans who don’t have a home with Kobach and could be tempted to go with Orman,” Bond said. “They need permission to cross over.”
