Lt. Gov. David Toland had long been expected to emerge as the Democratic Party’s standard-bearer in Kansas after Gov. Laura Kelly’s term ends.
Dynamic personality. Deep connections with the business community. Instrumental in some of the state’s biggest economic development deals such as Panasonic.
He’s always been expected to be the Democratic candidate to seek the governorship after Kelly leaves office, so much so that even Republicans began referring to the Kelly/Toland administration in any statements criticizing the current governor.
But there have been no signs so far that Toland is interested in the job, leaving a lack of clarity about what the Democratic field for governor might look like in 2026, although the names of different candidates have been percolating in recent months.
Earlier this year, Toland declined to discuss any plan he might have to run for governor and last week didn’t respond to a text message asking him about the governor’s race.
A source close to the lieutenant governor said he’s entirely focused on efforts to bring the Royals and Chiefs to Kansas.
“David is eating, breathing and sleeping Chiefs and Royals right now,” the source said.
“I don’t think anything else, including any thought of a campaign, has been on his radar for months.
“To David, the most important thing right now is bringing these teams to Kansas.
“If he did that, I think he would consider that the greatest thing he could accomplish professionally for the state of Kansas”
The radio silence from the lieutenant governor has signaled to many that he’s not planning to run, opening the door to other possibilities, especially since he has had a platform as lieutenant governor that he hasn’t used in any kind of telling way.
“There was sort of this expectation that Toland was going to run,” said one Democratic source. “It was all very quiet. Nobody was ever really saying anything. He wasn’t saying anything. Then, I think, it kind of came to the realization that he wasn’t going to do it.
“I think people were expecting you would see activity from him that would lead you to believe he’s going to run. People weren’t just seeing it.”
There’s a view that Toland really doesn’t embrace politics as much as chasing economic development deals and taking on a role in the private sector or devoting time to his family.
“You’ve got to have a real high bullshit tolerance to be in politics,” the source said. “I’m just not sure he really has that.”
While it is believed that Kelly wanted Toland to run for governor, she wasn’t inclined to say in an interview late last year whether that was the case.
“Some people thought strongly that the governor wanted David Toland to be the candidate, and others were casting about for other candidates from the beginning,” said one source affiliated with an outside group with an interest in the governor’s race.
Another longtime Democratic operative put it this way:
“I was always under the assumption that he was going to put the party on his shoulders. I don’t know why it appears as if he’s backed off of that,” the operative said.
Now, possible candidates include the Senate’s top Democrat, Dinah Sykes; state Sen. Ethan Corson of Fairway; state Sen. Cindy Holscher of Overland Park; and possibly former attorney general candidate Chris Mann or former Transportation Secretary Julie Lorenz.
Holscher has been touring the state in recent weeks, but she’s also been looking at running for the U.S. Senate against Republican incumbent Roger Marshall.
No Democratic candidate has officially announced their candidacy even as the Republican field has become more defined with five candidates, including Secretary of State Scott Schwab and former Gov. Jeff Colyer, already announcing for governor.
The Republican field is expected to grow in the coming months with Senate President Ty Masterson likely to announce soon and Johnson County businessman Philip Sarnecki already putting together a campaign team.
Other candidates who could join the Republican field include Insurance Commissioner Vicki Schmidt and former Royals General Manager Dayton Moore.
The lack of an official – or an unofficial – candidate for governor has some concerned that Democrats could be facing even more of an uphill fight in 2026, even though they might have an opportunity if President Donald Trump’s approval ratings continue sinking.
“Right now, I don’t think it’s at all clear who the Democrats’ nominee for governor may be in November of next year,” said Democratic state Rep. John Carmichael of Wichita.
“It is a frequent conversation of Democrats at all levels of the party as to where we are going,” Carmichael said.
“Right now, there does not appear to me to be at least a clear heir apparent to Laura Kelly,” Carmichael said.
“While my Republican colleagues don’t seem to have coalesced around a candidate either, it certainly is advantageous when you’re preparing for a statewide race to start early.”
The last time there was an open seat for governor in 2018, two candidates – former lawmaker Josh Svaty and former Wichita Mayor Carl Brewer – had already announced their candidacies by May 2017 and then Rep. Jim Ward announced in August.
Nevertheless, Kelly didn’t join the race until December 2017, swept through the primary field and prevailed over four other candidates in the general election.
But history isn’t on the Democratic Party’s side in 2026.
Over time, the party that has held the governor’s mansion for eight years was replaced by the opposite party.
Democrat John Carlin was governor from 1979 to 1987 and was replaced by Republican Gov. Mike Hayden. Republican Bill Graves was governor for two terms from 1993 to 2001 and was replaced by Democrat Kathleen Sebelius.
Sebelius and her Democratic successor, Mark Parkinson, were governor for eight years before being replaced by Republican Sam Brownback. Then Brownback and his successor, Jeff Colyer, were replaced by Kelly, a Democrat.
Ward said time is of the essence for Democratic candidates to get started given the amount of money that the governor’s race could cost.
The general election pitting Kelly against Republican challenger Derek Schmidt cost more than $30 million in television ads alone.
“Is the clock ticking? Yes, for serious candidates,” Ward said.
Democrats aren’t necessarily running scared of the Republican field, noting that if Republicans run toward Trump and his popularity is slumping it could blow up on them with controversies brewing over tariffs and Medicaid cuts, among others.
They believe that the Democratic names already mentioned would be good candidates. They believe there is still ample time to get a campaign up and running.
“I don’t see an 8,000-pound gorilla over there,” a Democratic source said of the Republican field so far. “Your guess is as good as mine as who comes out of that.”
The source said it will be a matter of which Democratic candidate can go out and raise money and “catch fire.”
Neil Sader, a Democratic donor from Johnson County, said the Democrats need a candidate who has name recognition or can develop it quickly, is likeable and has ideas about governing that the electorate responds to.
“Have we identified that person?” he asked “I think there are some legislative candidates that I’m aware of that are considering it.
“There are legislative candidates that certainly have good reputations and are not ethically challenged and have the best interests of the people at heart,” he said. “They are not well known, however, as of right now.
“Are we able to come up with another candidate that has statewide recognition and can make that appeal? That’s, I think, what we’re trying to find and see if that person is out there. To date, they have not surfaced and made themselves well known.”
Could that candidate be Lawrence attorney Chris Mann, who ran statewide for attorney general against Republican Kris Kobach in 2022 and narrowly lost?
Mann has already been raising money for another run at attorney general, but there has been word circulating that he’s now being encouraged to run for governor.
Mann did not respond to an email last week asking about whether he was looking at running for governor.
Mann, a former cop who was seriously injured when he was hit by a drunk driver, brings certain attributes.
He’s run statewide with a life story to tell about coming back from adversity. He’s raised lots of money. He carried Johnson County with 60.6% of the vote, an even higher percentage than Kelly did in winning the 2022 governor’s race.
The downside is Mann lost to Kobach, a candidate who was viewed as beatable in 2022 after losing a race for governor in 2018 and U.S. Senate in 2020.
And Mann didn’t win all of the counties that the governor won in 2022. And he could be tagged with the derisive “liberal lawyer from Lawrence” nickname in a campaign.
“I’ve heard that there are some people thinking maybe Chris Mann ought to change and run for governor,” said the Senate’s former top Democrat Anthony Hensley of Topeka.
“I am perfectly satisfied with him running for attorney general,” Hensley said. “I think he’d make a great attorney general.”
But there is an abiding worry that something needs to move soon for the Democrats to get into position to run a successful campaign for governor in 2026.
“It may be unreasonable to expect the field to be in better shape than it is,” said the source from the outside group.
“To some degree, the concern and frustration is more about expectations than about reality,” the source said, referring to Kelly’s entrance into the 2018 governor’s race in late 2017 and her drive to victory.
That said, the source said there needs to be some movement soon.
“Clearly, though, something has to happen, something has to break, somebody has to declare. The time for that is clearly ticking away,” the source said.
Others don’t quite see it that way.
“I’m not sure that the timing is quite right,” Hensley said. “We’re over a year away from any election. I think there’s still time. I’m not really concerned about it.”
Still, some reflect back to the 2010 governor’s race when it appeared that then-Gov. Mark Parkinson would run to replace Sebelius as governor – similar to how it appeared that Toland might run for governor.
Parkinson said at the time that he had no intention of running after taking the seat that came open when Sebelius resigned to accept a cabinet post as secretary of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services.
Parkinson switched parties to become a Democrat and became Sebelius’ lieutenant governor until 2009, when he became governor after she departed.
Washburn political science professor Bob Beatty said there was an expectation by some Democrats – or at least a hope – that Parkinson would have run for governor.
But when he didn’t run, one national political pundit said the party was seriously set back with the election just months away.
Larry Sabato, the national political analyst at the University of Virginia, said Parkinson left his party “high and dry” when he refused to run in 2010, and “to add insult to injury, he picked as his new lieutenant governor a Democrat who also pledged not to run.”
“Despite a respectable Democratic candidate in Tom Holland, the election is all but over,” Sabato predicted in June 2010.
“Republicans will re-take the governor’s office with current U.S. Sen. Sam Brownback. This is a remarkable example of the governing political party imploding. The GOP can count this one as in the bag,” Sabato wrote.
Holland announced his candidacy for governor in February 2010 and lost that year with 32% of the vote.
Republicans held control of the governor’s office until 2019 after Kelly was elected.
There is a fear among some that 2010 could be repeated.
“It seems like this is the same thing happening again,” one Democrat said.
