They may not be the seven deadly sins.
But these seven risk factors identified by the Cook Political Report, don’t bode well for Republican Congressman Kevin Yoder bid’s for re-election in the 3rd District.
The Cook Political Report just last week applied these “risk factors” to congressional races nationwide to asses what candidates were vulnerable. Yoder was among the incumbents with the most “risk factors.”
Only one incumbent – Republican U.S. Rep. Steve Knight of California – had all seven risk factors, including whether Hillary Clinton won his district in 2016 and whether he received 55 percent of the vote or less in 2016.
Eight Republicans, including Yoder, had six “risk factors.” The congressman seem unfazed by the Cook Political Report’s findings:
“Kevin treats every race as a toss-up, even though no Democrat has cracked 41 percent of the vote in this district against him,” spokesman C.J. Grover said in an email.
So let’s dig into the analysis and the seven risk factors.
– Is the incumbent in a district with a Cook Partisan Voter Index score of R+5 or less Republican. The index “measures how each district performs at the presidential level compared to the nation as whole,” the Cook report explains.
For instance, an R+4 score means the district performed four points more Republican than the national average. And that’s precisely the score for the 3rd Congressional District.
– Did Hillary Clinton win the 3rd District? Check.
– The incumbent received 55 percent of the vote or less in 2016. Check that box. Yoder received 51.3 percent in the 2016 election.
– Voted in favor of the American Health Care Act, the bill that would have repealed and replaced large parts of Obamacare. Check that box for Yoder, too.
– Voted in favor of the congressional tax cuts approved by Congress last December. That’s another check for Yoder.
– Raised less money than at least one Democratic challenger in the first quarter of this year.
Yoder raised about $400,000 in the first quarter. Not an issue.
Out west, Republican Congressman Ron Estes in the 4th District had three risk factors going against him, namely votes on Obamacare and the congressional tax cut. His 52.2 percent win in a special election also was seen as a drag.
