(Updated to include new poll results done for a group affiliated with Democrats)
Two new polls out on Wednesday painted conflicting pictures of the U.S. Senate race in Kansas, one showing Republican Congressman Roger Marshall with a commanding lead over Democrat Barbara Bollier and another with it deadlocked.
One poll, done by a political action committee supporting Marshall, shows the congressman leading Bollier 51% to 39% with 2% going to Libertarian candidate Jason Buckley. The undecideds were at 8%.
A second poll done on behalf of a group that defends the Affordable Care Act shows the race knotted at 43% each for Marshall and Bollier.
The poll showing Marshall with the 12-point lead was commissioned by the Keep Kansas Great PAC, which is backing Marshall and whose consultant is Travis Smith, a former top aide to Congressman Kevin Yoder.
“Marshall has helped solidify his position as a clear front runner in the past month,” the polling memo from Keep Kansas Great PAC states.
“Although Marshall starts the race with a 12-point lead on the ballot, the underlying conditions of the state clearly indicate that he has room to improve,” the memo said.
The poll was done by the Kansas City firm co/Efficient, which is led by Ryan Munce, who worked for Steve Miller in his unsuccessful campaign for Kansas City mayor in 2019.
In February, the same firm polled the 2nd Congressional District primary race between Republican Congressman Steve Watkins and Kansas Treasurer Jake LaTurner.
The poll showed Watkins with support from 49% of those surveyed, compared to 23% for LaTurner. The poll was done months before Watkins was charged with voter fraud.
LaTurner ended up winning the race by 15 percentage points.
However, another poll done by Public Policy Polling of Raleigh, North Carolina, showed the race extraordinarily closer.
The PPP poll of 897 Kansas voters from Oct. 19 to Oct. 20 showed the race deadlocked at 43% each with 5% going to Buckley and 9% undecided.
The PPP poll was done on behalf of Protect Our Care, a group formed to lobby for the preservation of the Affordable Care Act.
The group’s executive director is Brad Woodhouse, a political operative who once served as communications director and senior adviser to the Democratic National Committee.
The Protect Our Care poll showed that 45% of those polled had an unfavorable view of Marshall compared to 39% who viewed him favorably. Sixteen percent weren’t sure.
The same poll showed that 49% viewed Bollier unfavorably compared to 39% who saw her favorably. Twelve percent were unsure.
The pollsters from PPP observed that the undecideds in the U.S. Senate race are breaking for Donald Trump, suggesting Marshall has room to grow.
“But concerns over his record on health care are giving him trouble with independents and the party base, and illustrating the importance of the health care issue in the race overall,” the pollsters said in their memo.
The two polls emerged with much anticipation of The New York Times releasing a poll of the Kansas U.S. Senate race early Wednesday afternoon.
However, The Times pushed back the release of its poll until Thursday.
This Keep Kansas Great poll of 2,453 likely general election voters was done between Oct. 18 and Oct. 20.
It had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.
It is the first poll during the campaign that has shown any substantial separation between Bollier and Marshall during the campaign.
A recent poll done by a Republican consultant showed Bollier leading Marshall 45.4% to 41.9%.
Another poll done by SurveyUSA from early August showed Marshall leading 46% to 44%.
“This race is a toss-up. Poll after poll has shown just that — as has the enthusiasm we’ve seen on the ground,” said Bollier spokeswoman Alexandra De Luca.
“We’ve clearly got the momentum in these final weeks.”
