Kansas voters decided in August that the state constitution should protect the right to an abortion following a $20 million campaign that owned the airwaves for weeks.
But if you think the vote brought the issue to an end, think again.
While the stakes are not as high as they were in August, the abortion issue continues to rage up and down the ballot for Democratic candidates going into the general election.
Democratic candidates from the U.S. Senate down to Kansas House races are hoping to parlay the overwhelming defeat of the constitutional abortion amendment to wins at the ballot box this fall.
The amendment, which would have removed the right to an abortion from the state constitution, was defeated by about 20 percentage points in a primary election when a record number of ballots were cast.
It came weeks after the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, energizing supporters of the amendment and driving up turnout in record proportions.
“It’s an important issue, and the voters of Kansas sent a clear message,” said the top Democrat in the House, Rep. Tom Sawyer.
“They didn’t just say no. They said, ‘Hell no,’ to changing the constitution.”
House Democrats have been pouring through the data, singling out districts where the abortion amendment failed and matching that against Republicans who either voted to put the amendment on the ballot or get support from opponents of abortion rights.
Sawyer said there are a number of swing districts across Kansas where voters came out heavily against the amendment.
“There is a real opportunity for our candidates to reach out to those people and win over their votes based on that issue,” he said.
There are, however, several variables in play as the general election approaches, and questions persist about whether voters will use the amendment as a basis for a vote against candidates running for the Legislature.
Are Kansans who voted against the amendment still as amped up as they were in August, and will they turn out for Democrats?
And is abortion such an overriding factor that it will put Democrats over the top and help them break the Republican supermajority in the House?
“That’s the million dollar question,” said Helena Buchmann, the field director for the campaign that opposed the constitutional amendment.
“Democrats are trying to figure out how much they should talk about abortion, and Republicans are trying to figure out how to talk about abortion,” she said.
It’s a bit of a dance for each side with Democrats not wanting to appear as if they support unlimited abortion and Republicans not wanting to be seen as supporting a ban, some political observers said.
How those sides are balanced could decide how voters respond to the issue this fall.
House Majority Leader Dan Hawkins questions whether the issue has much juice now that the abortion amendment — known as Value Them Both — has been decided.
“Without that passing, there’s not a lot that can be done,” Hawkins said of the Legislature passing new abortion regulations.
“If Value Them Both passed, I could understand why they’d keep pounding the drum on that issue because they would have something to talk about,” Hawkins said.
“Kansas is still a pro-life state. It’s just that they didn’t like that amendment.”
A recent poll from Emerson College on the governor’s race suggests Kansans are still charged up going after voter turnout records were smashed during the primary.
The poll found that about 50% of the voters who opposed the amendment said they were somewhat or very likely to vote in the midterm elections.
By comparison, 35% of the voters who supported the amendment said they were somewhat or very likely to vote in the midterm elections.
“There’s a reason why Kansans broke records to vote in August and it’s because they knew that women’s rights to control their own healthcare decisions need to be protected,” Democratic House candidate Mel Pinick recently posted on Twitter.
“We need to keep protecting those rights by voting out extremists in the (Legislature) like my opponent,” tweeted Pinick, who is running against Republican state Rep. John Resman.
While concentrated mostly in state House races, the abortion issue is spread across the ballot from governor to Congress to U.S. Senate.
Democratic former Unified Government Mayor Mark Holland is running on it in his uphill battle against Republican U.S. Sen. Jerry Moran.
Congressional candidate Patrick Schmidt has talked about it in his bid against U.S. Rep. Jake LaTurner in the 2nd Congressional District.
It’s now surfaced in the Kansas governor’s race, where the Planned Parenthood Great Plains PAC announced it was making a six-figure digital ad purchase highlighting Republican Attorney General Derek Schmidt’s “extremism on abortion.”
And it’s likely nowhere more pronounced than in the Kansas 3rd District, where Democratic U.S. Rep. Sharice Davids has hammered away at Republican challenger Amanda Adkins for supporting the constitutional amendment on abortion.
“Regardless of political party, a candidate’s support for eliminating the constitutional rights of half their constituents is absolutely relevant this fall,” said Ashley All, who was the spokesperson for the primary group opposing the amendment.
“In many counties, the overwhelming majority of voters opposed this amendment,” All said in an email. “They did so because it is woefully out of step with their values of freedom and personal liberty.”
Some conservatives don’t believe the poll numbers accurately reflect that mood of supporters of the abortion amendment after it failed at the polls.
“I firmly believe that they understand that there’s more work to do and the job is just longer,” said Brittany Jones, director of policy and engagement for Kansas Family Voice, a member of the coalition that supported the amendment.
“I think they’re engaged for the long haul,” Jones said.
Davids has been running broadcast ads against Adkins claiming that the Republican challenger supports a total ban on abortion in a congressional district where the abortion amendment lost decisively.
The ad notes that Adkins supported the constitutional amendment on abortion, which didn’t ban abortion but which opponents said would allow the Legislature to outlaw the procedure.
Adkins says she doesn’t support a federal abortion ban, adding that she thinks the Democrats are overplaying their hand on the issue.
“Overwhelmingly, as I have been out in the community, the focus for most people is daily life and the economy,” Adkins told reporters recently.
“It is a misread on the part of the Democrats to think that this is the issue that is driving people,” she said.
And even hours before the results on the abortion amendment were known on Aug. 2, Davids was already casting Adkins as out of step with the district.
“Regardless of what the outcome on this is people are going to want to know where my opponent stands on this issue,” Davids told reporters Aug. 2.
“I think she is wildly out of touch with the feeling and sentiment of not just Johnson County, but the 3rd District,” Davids said. “She’s too far on this.”
Adkins has battled back on an issue that polling shows to be more favorable for her campaign — the economy.
Adkins has run ads connecting Davids to the president and blaming her for inflated gas and grocery prices.
The same Emerson Poll of the governor’s race found that the economy was the most important issue for 48% of Kansas voters, followed by abortion access (16%), health care (9%) and immigration (7%).
It was similar to other polls done nationally.
A poll done jointly by Politico and the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health from Aug. 5-22 found that 51% believed inflation will be “extremely” important in deciding whom to vote for compared to 49% for the economy and jobs.
Gun policy was third at 46%, while gas prices were fifth at 40%. Abortion ranked fourth, with 44% of voters believing it was an “extremely important” issue.
An NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist National poll now shows that while inflation is still the priority for voters, it’s not getting mentioned as often.
The poll, done Aug. 29 through Sept. 1, showed that 30% of voters listed inflation as their top issue, but it was down from 37% in July.
Meanwhile, 22% of voters say abortion is their top voting issue, up from 18% in July.
Health care was mentioned as the top issue by 13% of voters polled.
Some experts believe it’s hard to transfer opposition from an issue-oriented election to specific candidates even if they supported the amendment.
Ballot issues present voters with just one issue, while candidates are viewed through a prism of many issues, whether it’s education, taxes, social services or taxes.
“Democrats across the country clearly think they have a winning issue on abortion and that nationally, Republicans have overreached with the Dobbs decision and subsequent state laws following Dobbs,” said Joshua J. Dyck, director of the Center for Public Opinion at the University of Massachusetts at Lowell.
“But there’s nothing that makes a Republican in Kansas — where the issue was already put to a vote and addressed — now more likely to vote for Democrats,” Dyck said in an email.
“Electoral benefits to Democrats would have come on the ballot where the ballot measure was considered,” he said.
But House Democrats in Kansas believe there are signs they might have an edge.
They have cobbled together examples of where GOP House candidates have deemphasized their support for the constitutional amendment on their websites, replacing it with the fact that they are “pro-life” and including a link to their overall views on abortion.
“Website content changes frequently. This happens every cycle in every campaign,” said Mike Pirner, speaking as someone who manages several Republican House races in Johnson County and not in his role as spokesman for the Senate president.
“My guess is those who are trying to throw stones live in glass houses with websites that don’t mention Joe Biden or Kamala Harris nor the radical left-wing ideas that the Democratic candidates are affiliated with,” he said.
Lauren Martin, 3rd District chair for the state Democratic Party, cautioned that the results of the amendment vote don’t necessarily guarantee overwhelming wins next month.
Martin said the vote on the amendment on is much more narrowly focused than how voters will judge candidates.
“I never think it’s smart to assume what one election means about another election,” Martin said.
“I do not think that just because we defeated the Value Them Both amendment that means this year’s going to be great for Democrats,” she said.
“I just think voters are going into November with a lot more concerns than just this one issue,” she said.
The amendment, she said, was a ‘yes’ or ‘no’ question.
Some people will judge candidates based on where they are on abortion, she said. But for others, more issues such as education will come into play.
“You start adding in more math and then people have to do the game of what issues are most important to me,” she said.
“It becomes a lot more complicated.”
In central Kansas, former journalist Kim Zito, a Democrat, is running hard on the abortion issue against Republican state Rep. Mike Dodson of Manhattan in House District 67.
On her blog, Zito has criticized Dodson for voting to put the abortion amendment on the ballot and against an amendment to put the measure on the fall ballot.
She’s even criticized him for getting the support of Kansans for Life, which she called an “insidious special interest group.”
“You certainly know how to ignore your constituents, putting politics over people.”
In an interview, Zito said the voters in her district are still charged up about the abortion issue. She said 68% of her district opposed the amendment.
“While I was so grateful for the results of Aug. 2, I was just so worried that people were going to go away saying, ‘OK, our work is done,'” Zito said. “But that’s not the case.”
As she goes door to door, Zito carries with her a laminated newspaper article about a bill introduced last session that would have banned abortion with some exceptions.
Zito tells voters that lawmakers can still pass legislation on abortion with an eye toward taking the issue to court.
“People, women, even men, are fired up by this. They have not forgotten,” she said.
However, Zito acknowledges that she runs into voters who oppose abortion.
She said she’s been called a “baby murderer,” something she said was an outlier.
Dodson said as he walks neighborhoods, he gets a sense that voters just want government to leave them alone, especially after the restrictions imposed during the pandemic.
“I think we’ve got enough things on the books already to take care of people,” Dodson said of abortion restrictions now in place.
“The issue is though still in Kansas is the Kansas Supreme Court will override almost anything,” he said.
“I think the things on the books will stand Kansas in good stead,” he said.
Dodson distanced himself from an endorsement he received during the primary from Kansans for Life.
“I am not sure why they would do that,” he said.
“I made the argument pretty hard that I was not for zero. I told my compatriots up there that I wanted to get it on the ballot. That’s the only association I have with KFL.”
Pointed to the fact that he was endorsed by KFL, Dodson said, “I can’t do anything about that. A lot of people endorse you for various reasons.
“I would prefer not to have endorsements from some of these issues like that.”
Some candidates don’t believe that abortion figures that prominently in their races.
“Since the primary, the topic comes up but no more than issues like inflation, the Panasonic project, or other topics,” Republican House candidate Adam Turk of Shawnee said in a statement relayed through his campaign manager.
“And when it does, it’s always a good conversation.”
Turk’s Democratic opponent in House District 117, Courtney Tripp of De Soto, said the issue still resonates with voters as she knocks doors although it’s not universal.
“It’s still very top of mind,” she said.
“Being in a district that went 64% ‘no,’ it’s absolutely an issue where not only do I feel strongly about where I’m at on the issue…the ‘no’ vote reflects where our community is.”
She acknowledges there have been times when abortion has ended a conversation at the doorstep.
“I have had houses where the end of the conversation has just been the fact that I have a ‘D’ by my name,” she said.
“I have had houses where the conversation has ended for other reasons, too,” she said.
Republican state Rep. Chris Croft, who chairs the House Republican Campaign Committee, said he think Democrats are trying to use abortion to distract from the economy.
As he goes door to door, Croft said voters are concerned about the economy.
“The fact of the matter is people have spoken. In my opinion, that’s over,” Croft said of the abortion amendment.
“It’s time to move on and talk about all the other things that matter to people,” he said.
“I have really heard zero talk about Value Them Both.”
