Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly is narrowly leading Republican Attorney General Derek Schmidt as she seeks to win a second term, according to a new independent poll released Wednesday morning.
The poll conducted by Emerson College Polling and The Hill newspaper found Kelly with about 45% of the vote compared to 43% for Schmidt.
Conservative state Sen. Dennis Pyle, running as an independent, had 3% in the poll. The undecideds were at 8%.
The poll of 1,000 somewhat and very likely voters was done Sept. 15-18. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said in a statement that Kelly was winning over independent voters in the new poll.
Kimball said Kelly was getting 46% of independent voters compared to 30% for Schmidt, who has been campaigning to the right in recent weeks.
Kelly was getting stronger support from her party than Schmidt was drawing from his party, the poll showed.
About 91% of Democrats polled supported Kelly, while Schmidt was getting support from 4.2% of Democrats.
Meanwhile, Schmidt was getting support from 74% of Republicans compared to Kelly, who was getting support from about 15% of Republicans.
Kimball said men were breaking for Schmidt 51% to 38%, while women were going for Kelly 51% to 36%.
A majority of Kansas voters (53%) viewed Kelly favorably, while 37% view her unfavorably and 5% were undecided, according to the poll.
Schmidt was viewed favorably by 45% of voters and unfavorably by 37%.
However, Schmidt was either unheard of or neutral to 20% of the state, even though Republicans have spent or booked about $12 million in broadcasting advertising.
Among undecided voters, almost twice as many (64%) haven’t heard of or have no opinion of the challenger, compared to 33% for the incumbent.
Voters were also asked which candidate for governor they agree with most on the issue of abortion rights.
Forty-eight percent said Kelly, 44% said Schmidt and 9% said Pyle, according to the poll.
However, the poll found that the economy was the most important issue for 48% of Kansas voters, followed by abortion access (16%), health care (9%) and immigration (7%).
The poll seems to affirm fears that Pyle could still influence the outcome of the race if he’s able to draw conservative voters away from Schmidt.
Pyle’s presence in the race has driven Schmidt to the right as he tries to shore up his conservative credentials, something seen last weekend when he campaign with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in Olathe.
In that appearance, Schmidt embraced DeSantis, saying he wanted “a future for our great state of Kansas that looks a whole lot more like Ron DeSantis has in Florida.”
Schmidt has been pounding home conservative themes, promising to sign legislation that would ban transgender athletes from competing in female sports and establish a “parents bill of rights.”
The Schmidt campaign has been complemented by ad runs by the Republican Governors Association that accuse Kelly of aligning with groups supporting “critical race theory” and the “transgender agenda.”
The Kelly campaign, which has focused its efforts on tying Schmidt to former Gov. Sam Brownback, released a new ad Wednesday morning responding to the Republican ad criticizing her on the transgender athletes issue.
The poll results are very different from a poll made public last week that had a much smaller sample size than the Emerson poll.
NetChoice, a trade association of technology and internet-based businesses, released a national poll conducted by Echelon Insights that looked at political races in 14 states, including Kansas.
In that poll, Kelly led Schmidt 53% to 41%, although it only surveyed 392 likely voters and had a margin of error of 7.5 percentage points.
The poll also showed Kelly with a favorable rating of 57% compared to Schmidt, who had a favorable rating of 35%.
The Kelly campaign took comfort in the governor’s favorability numbers.
“Gov. Kelly’s strong favorability and big lead with independent voters is just more proof that her steady leadership and record of bipartisan results is resonating with Kansans – no matter their political party,” spokesperson Madison Andrus said.
The governor “will continue to earn the trust of Kansans by pushing for policies that help families – while Derek Schmidt is running to bring us back to the failures of Sam Brownback,” Andrus said.
The Schmidt campaign says it’s surging in the race as “Kansans learn more about Laura Kelly’s extreme record of vetoing fairness in women’s sports, locking kids and parents out of schools, and working in lockstep with Joe Biden to make inflation worse,” campaign consultant Eric Pahls said.
“She can’t answer for her record and as of today has to resort to desperate on-camera lies, which no Kansan believes.”