A new poll by a conservative-leaning group shows Republican Attorney General Derek Schmidt edging ahead of Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly as the governor’s race heads into the final three months.
The poll, commissioned by a nonprofit group that has contributed to a PAC supporting Schmidt, shows the attorney general leading the race with 47.9%.
Kelly trailed Schmidt with 45.4% while state Sen. Dennis Pyle had 2.1%. The undecideds were at 4.6%.
The poll results seem to imply that Pyle isn’t making the impact – at least so far – that some believed he would make in the governor’s race by drawing conservative votes away from Schmidt and helping Kelly.
Pyle submitted almost 9,000 signatures to get on the ballot as an independent candidate in the general election.
Those signatures still need to be certified, and there’s no date set in statute for when that process needs to be completed. Election officials have said they hope to have it done by Sept. 1.
The poll showed Kelly with a favorable rating of 53.3%, including 34.2% who viewed her “very favorable” and 19.1% who viewed her “somewhat” favorably.
The governor’s unfavorables came in at 43.4%, including 15.8% who saw her somewhat unfavorably and 27.6% very unfavorably.
By comparison, the poll found Schmidt was seen favorably by 49.3% of those polled, including 25.4% who saw him very favorably and 23.9% somewhat favorably.
In term of negatives, 12.6% saw Schmidt somewhat unfavorably and 25.7% viewed him very unfavorably.
The poll showed that more voters had made up their mind about Kelly than Schmidt.
About 12% of those surveyed had no opinion about Schmidt, while 3.3% had no opinion about Kelly.
The poll comes as broadcast spending on the governor’s race continues to climb.
It now totals about $24.4 million, according to the national ad tracking firm AdImpact.
Democratic groups, including Kelly’s campaign, have spent or booked about $4 million more in broadcast ads than the Republicans so far.
The poll was conducted by Battleground Connect, an Atlanta-based firm that also did polling for a PAC supporting state Sen. Kellie Warren in the attorney general’s race.
It surveyed 1,074 likely general election voters in Kansas from Aug. 8-10.
Interviews were done via landline telephone and via text messages to cellphones.
Thirty-seven percent of those polled were identified as very conservative, 26% were somewhat conservative and 37% were moderate or liberal.
The poll was commissioned by the John Brown Freedom Fund, a 501(c)(4) nonprofit social welfare group that doesn’t have to disclose its donors.
Republican political consultant Pat Leopold is the group’s spokesperson.
The fund gave $40,000 to the Our Way of Life PAC, an independent federal PAC created to help Schmidt get elected governor.
The Our Way of Life PAC spent about $147,000 during the first seven months of the year on the governor’s race.
The latest poll results are similar to poll conducted by a conservative pollster last year but with improved favorability numbers for Kelly from a year ago.
A poll by Remington Research Group of Kansas City, Missouri, showed Schmidt leading Kelly 44% to 40% with 16% of voters undecided.
Her approval rating in the latest poll was better than what the Remington poll found, however.
Remington’s survey showed Kelly with an approval rating of 46% while 39% disapproved and 15% were undecided.
A separate poll done for Emily’s List showed the opposite results.
The poll done by Clarity Campaign Labs of Washington, D.C., showed Kelly with a 3 percentage point lead over Schmidt, with 47% backing the governor and 44% supporting the attorney general.
The survey – similar to the new conservative poll – also showed Kelly with an approval rating of 53% while her disapproval was at about 41% and 6% was undecided.
The Kelly campaign latched onto the favorability numbers in the latest poll, which were better than another poll conducted by Fort Hays.
“Gov. Kelly’s job approval rating is just more proof that her steady leadership is resonating with Kansans, even through partisan polling,” campaign spokesperson Madison Andrus said in a statement.
“Gov. Kelly has gotten Kansas back on track, investing in our critical infrastructure, fully funding our public schools, growing our economy, and protecting our future.
“Governor Kelly will continue to earn the trust of Kansans and push for policies that help families – like expanding high-speed internet access and early childhood education.”
Leopold said the poll paints a bleaker picture for the governor.
“Heading into the fall well below 50% and losing is not a great place for an incumbent governor to be sitting, particularly after massively outspending your challenger,” Leopold said.
“This survey indicates that your record matters more than advertising in Kansas and running on a record of shuttering small businesses and stunting our public schools is not a winning formula.”
