The calendar says the next race for Kansas governor isn’t until 2026.
But conversations are well underway – starting even before the 2024 elections – about what the field to replace Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly will look like next year.
The names of no fewer than a dozen Republican and Democratic candidates have bubbled up in the great Kansas parlor game of who will and who won’t run for governor.
Republican candidates most frequently being mentioned are former Gov. Jeff Colyer, Senate President Ty Masterson, Kansas Secretary of State Scott Schwab, Insurance Commissioner Vicki Schmidt, Republican Congressman Ron Estes and Wichita businessman Jon Rolph.
Johnson County businessman and Republican donor Philip Sarnecki also has surfaced as a possible candidate, but some believe he will not run for governor if Schwab enters the race.
Lt. Gov. David Toland, who also serves as state commerce secretary, has been considered the leading and mostly likely Democratic candidate, although he has yet to definitively answer any questions about his political candidacy.
But other Democrats mentioned include former state Transportation Secretary Julie Lorenz, state Sen. Cindy Holscher of Overland Park and Matt All, president and CEO of Blue Cross and Blue Shield of Kansas, and state Sen. Ethan Corson of Fairway.
“There’s a lot going on already. It’s not all public,” said former Kansas Republican Party Chair Mike Kuckelman.
“There are a lot of people making phone calls and reaching out trying to get support,” Kuckelman said.
“As far as anybody officially filing, I don’t know when that will happen,” he said.
“I hear that there are a lot of people that are looking at it. I think it’s going to be a pretty crowded primary to start.”
There’s a general view that the 2026 governor’s race won’t start to unfold publicly until after the legislative session, which is scheduled to end April 12.
It’s not uncommon for the governor’s race to start a year before the election is scheduled.
Four years ago, Colyer and then-Attorney General Derek Schmidt signaled that they were planning to run for governor in March 2021, more than a year before the primary election.
In early March of 2021, Colyer took the first step toward running for Kansas governor when he named Mary Eisenhower as his campaign treasurer.
Just days later, Schmidt officially kicked off his campaign for governor.
Four years earlier, candidates started lining up for governor by the spring of 2017.
In February of 2017, former Wichita Mayor Carl Brewer announced he was running for governor. He was the first Democrat to get in the 2018 Kansas governor’s race.
Three months later, Democrat Josh Svaty announced he was running for governor.
And three months after that, former state Rep. Jim Ward, the top Democrat in the House at the time, announced plans to run for governor as well.
Kelly didn’t get in the race until December 2017, then went on to win the Democratic primary and was elected governor over Republican Kris Kobach.
What the 2026 Kansas governor’s race looks like on either side is still somewhat cloudy, although some names that get mentioned have more credibility than others.
One little-known candidate – Stacy Rogers of Wichita – appointed a treasurer in September so she could start raising money to run for governor.
Rogers, who has a background in Mary Kay Cosmetics and Tupperware Brands and now owns a company called KCC North America, describes herself as a “lifelong Republican” and “entrepreneur.”
Colyer, who narrowly lost the 2018 Republican primary for governor against Kris Kobach, is sounding like a candidate but stops short of committing to a race.
“I’ll tell you what people are telling me,” Colyer said in a statement.
“Kansans are eager for a governor with a proven ability to unite and inspire around a commonsense conservative agenda — one that lowers the cost of living, creates broadly felt prosperity, and safeguards our cultural and physical security.
“I agree with them and I’ll be sharing my ideas for how we get there very soon.”
Schwab said he was “seriously” considering a run for governor, although his name as a potential contender for governor has been circulating for months.
“Having won two statewide elections in the past five years, I believe I have the experience and determination to lead,” Schwab said in a statement.
“The opportunity to continue serving Kansans and to make a meaningful impact on our state is one I can’t ignore,” Schwab said.
Schwab has carved out a national presence for himself in recent months, appearing in various national media outlets talking about the threats against poll workers and criticizing the U.S. Postal Service’s inability to deliver ballots before the election deadline.
Insurance Commissioner Schmidt said she, too, was looking at a race, although her name has been swirling in political circles for months as well.
“I have always loved serving Kansans and I enjoy the work I am doing at the Department of Insurance,” Schmidt said.
“However, I can’t go to the grocery store without someone asking me if I am running for governor, so it is something I will be giving thought to,” she said.
Schmidt goes into the upcoming legislative with an agenda that calls for lowering fees and cutting premium taxes for Kansas insurance agents and companies.
She’s also planning to ask the Legislature to approve tax-deferred insurance savings accounts to help Kansans pay their deductibles for property and casualty insurance.
Masterson, meanwhile, is homing in on the legislative session ahead.
“My top priority is helping our supermajority work through our key issues like property tax reform, education freedom, and government efficiency,” Masterson said.
“With a 90 day calendar ahead of us it is crucial I stay focused on the priorities before our Senate Republican caucus,” he said in a statement.
Rolph, a Republican member of the Kansas Board of Regents, dismissed any idea that he was running for governor in 2026.
“I have no idea where that rumor started,” he said.
A spokesperson for Estes said the congressman is focused on his work in the House and serving on the House Ways and Means Committee.
There has been talk that if enough conservatives jump in the Republican primary, it could open a path for a more moderate candidate, perhaps someone like Insurance Commissioner Schmidt.
Republican state Sen. J.R. Claeys, who also works as a political consultant, said barring a major shift in the race like the entry of a popular congressman or a former Donald Trump cabinet member, the field is likely to have several credible GOP candidates.
He said the field could range from a current senate president (Masterson) to a former governor (Colyer), a couple statewide elected officials (Schmidt and Schwab) and possibly the head of a major statewide business organization.
The traditional fight to be the most conservative in a race with so many credible conservatives with legitimate races to run opens a lane for a moderate plurality, he said.
“With enough credible conservatives taking up double-digit vote share a moderate lane emerges, but two moderates would collapse that lane quickly,” Claeys said.
Kansas political consultant Jared Suhn suggested it might be time for Kansas Republicans to turn to a different kind of candidate after losing to Kelly twice.
“Republicans know we need a new direction after two failed cycles — we can’t keep doing the same thing, putting up the same type of candidate and expecting a win in November of 2026,” Suhn said in an email.
“The Republican electorate is primed for a new generation of leadership with proven experience building teams, a deep passion for improving the lives of Kansans, the experience to raise substantial sums of money and the ability to help rebuild our party in the suburbs,” he said.
“No one thought Donald Trump would become the Republican nominee let alone President in January of 2015 — it is early and this field will evolve,” he said.
Then there’s President-elect Trump and whether he decides to endorse in the Kansas governor’s race in 2026.
Colyer knows all too well the repercussions of a Trump endorsement.
Trump’s endorsement of Kobach immediately before the 2018 Republican gubernatorial primary was credited with helping him defeat Colyer by 657 votes.
Colyer endorsed Trump for president in 2023 leading up to the presidential election.
“Recent history suggests a Trump endorsement is overwhelmingly valuable in a Kansas primary,” Republican strategist David Kensinger said.
“I struggle to think of an instance where the president has weighed in and it hasn’t contributed to victory,” he said.
“Anybody running without it has a real challenge. Anybody running against it probably needs to reconsider their candidacy.”
Even on the Democratic side where Toland has generally been viewed as a likely candidate, there is still some thoughts that the field is still open.
“I think it’s going to be an open field scramble for who wants to become the nominee on the Democratic side,” said former Democratic Party National Committeeman Christopher Reeves.
Toland declined to discuss his plans about running for governor, although his connections to the business community as the Kansas commerce secretary give him an attribute not many other Democrats share.
“He’s been a really good lieutenant governor in terms of promoting our state’s economic development projects, and that’s allowed him to get out across the state and become pretty well known,” said longtime Democrat and former Senate Minority Leader Anthony Hensley.
“I think that would give him a good head start in terms of a statewide candidacy,” Hensley said. “I wouldn’t discount any other Democrats. I just think he’s had a good opportunity to meet a lot of people, particularly in the business community.
“I think he’s made a lot of contacts statewide, which would help in a statewide race,” he said in a recent interview.
Toland is likely facing the prospect of deciding between whether he wants to lead the state as governor or take a lucrative job in the private sector after enjoying a successful run recruiting businesses for the state as commerce secretary, a source said.
Republicans have been eager to run against Toland after the Commerce Department hired someone with a criminal background to oversee the administration in millions of dollars in federal grants.
Even before that, Republicans have been labeling the governor’s administration as the Kelly/Toland administration when they criticize the governor.
Even Kansans for Life draws on the same label when criticizing the governor’s administration for delaying the release of abortion statistics last year.
It is believed that Kelly wants Toland to run to succeed her after she leaves office in 2027, although the governor declined to say in a recent interview whether she was encouraging him to run in two years.
“David Toland is his own man. He’s going to make whatever decision he wants to make,” Kelly said.
“I know that running for governor is something you have got to want to do,” she said. “You’ve got have some compelling reason to do it.
“That’s for David to decide, not me to decide,” she said. “I would never pressure anybody to do something. It has to really come from within.”
In the backdrop of the uncertainty about a Toland candidacy, Holscher acknowledged that she was looking at a possible bid for governor.
“We’re looking at it,” Holscher said in an email.
“We have to ensure that whoever the candidate is, that they understand the nuances of running in a competitive, red-leaning race,” she said.
“At this point, I’m the only Dem senator in the Legislature to represent a red district and the only current Dem legislative office-holder to ever defeat an R incumbent in a race in a red district,” Holscher said.
All, the top executive at Blue Cross and Blue Shield of Kansas, dismissed any idea that he plans to run for governor.
All at one point had been general counsel to former Democratic Gov. Kathleen Sebelius, and his wife was Gov. Kelly’s first communications director.
“I’ve heard the same rumors,” All said of his candidacy for governor. “I have no intention of running for anything in 2026. I’m completely focused on my job and my family.”
