The polling roller coaster in the U.S. Senate race took a different turn Thursday with a new survey showing Republican Congressman Roger Marshall leading Democratic state Sen. Barbara Bollier with the general election days away.
The latest poll done by Republican consultant JD Johannes showed Marshall leading Bollier 47% to about 43%, although there is an indication that the race could still hinge on how undecided voters break.
Libertarian candidate Jason Buckley received about 2% and about 8% were undecided.
“This thing’s close,” Johannes said.
The poll, done with automated calls, surveyed 1,149 likely voters Oct. 26-27. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.
It was a different result from the end of September, when Johannes’ polling showed Bollier leading Marshall 45.4% to about 42%.
“This is a significant swing toward Marshall,” Johannes said in the polling memo.
“Negativity bias is real. Contrast advertising moves undecided voters and those weakly aligned with a candidate,” Johannes said.
“Changes from late September to late October are primarily among the previously undecided voters.”
The Bollier campaign said the Johannes poll reaffirms that the race is close like their own polls show.
“Momentum, though, is on our side,” Bollier spokeswoman Alexandra DeLuca said.
Johannes said Marshall has gained 6 percentage points among voters who identify strongly as Republicans and 10 points with less conservative Republicans.
He said Marshall’s support grew 6 percentage points with more moderate and independent voters.
Johannes noted that the largest remaining group of undecided voters identifies as a traditional or progressive Democrat.
If traditional Democrats “break for Bollier in the same proportion as the overall group, she quickly gains 1.5 points,” he said in the memo.
“Strong Blue should also break for Bollier. Those breaks would make the voting
outcome exceed some standard ‘back of the envelope’ polling projections,” Johannes said.
The poll done by Johannes’ firm, VCreek/AMG, was not paid by anyone to do the survey. Johannes said he doesn’t have any Kansas clients.
Well regarded in Republican circles, Johannes is working for the Americas PAC this election cycle. He polled for Kris Kobach in the 2018 governor’s race.
Johannes’ poll came after the Bollier campaign released an internal poll by GBAO Strategies on Wednesday showing Bollier leading with 46% followed by Marshall at 45% and Libertarian Buckley at 4%. The undecideds were at 4%.
The firm surveyed 600 likely Kansas voters with live calls to landlines and cellphones. The margin of error was 4 percentage points. The poll was done Monday and Tuesday.
A New York Times poll done on Oct. 18-20 showed Marshall up 4 percentage points in the U.S. Senate race over Bollier.
A SurveyUSA poll from early August showed Marshall enjoying support from 46% of the 1,202 likely voters surveyed. Bollier had support from 44% of those surveyed. Ten percent were undecided.
A poll paid for by Emily’s List and conducted by Public Policy Polling of North Carolina in early August showed Marshall at 43% and Bollier at 42% with a margin of error of 3.3%.
Another poll paid for the Democratic affiliated group Protect Our Care showed Marshall and Bollier deadlocked at 43% each. Protect Our Care defends the Affordable Care Act.
The PPP poll showing a tie was done from Oct. 19 to Oct. 20.
