(Editors note: Some of the data in this article is incomplete because a handful of smaller counties – Gove, Greenwood, Linn, Meade, Sheridan, Sherman, and Washington – have not yet completed their election reporting to the secretary of state’s office.)
Even as the proposed constitutional amendment on abortion led in an early poll, there was one demographic that quietly screamed out the possibility for defeat.
Seventy-five percent of young adults from the age of 18 to 34 – an age bracket less likely to vote – told pollsters they opposed the amendment.
No other age group opposed the amendment by those margins in the poll, meaning that young voter turnout was always going to be pivotal in that Aug. 2 vote.
State data reveal that young voters – especially young Democratic voters – turned out in droves during the primary and helped propel the defeat of the amendment, according to data compiled in partnership with Wichita State University political scientist Brian Amos.
And a vast majority of those Kansans who voted for the first time in August – about 75% -ranged in age from 18 to 34 years old, the data showed.
“We put a lot of effort into connecting with young people, motivating young people,” said Ashley All, who was the spokesperson for Kansans for Constitutional Freedom, the primary group opposing the amendment.
“I also would say that when you look at an issue like this that is about people’s constitutional rights, their freedom to make decisions about their bodies, that is something we know is important to people of that age, 18 to roughly 40,” she said.
The primary election was preceded by a surge in voter registration, especially among young voters, according to state election data.
In the week of the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe, there were 1,128 new voter registrations.
The week immediately after the decision – Monday through Friday – the number of new registrations spiked to 3,972 or 3 1/2 times more than a week earlier.
Of the 3,972 new registered voters the week after the Supreme Court decision, about 87% of those were within the 18-34 age bracket and about 71% of those were women.
The youth movement was buoyed by women voting in numbers that haven’t been seen in Kansas in at least 16 years, or perhaps even longer, the data show.
About 526,000 women cast ballots in the Aug. 2 primary, surpassing the roughly 256,800 women who participated in the 2018 election, which was considered a “pink wave” year in which Sharice Davids was elected to Congress and Laura Kelly was elected governor.
It was the highest number of women who have participated in a state primary since at least 2006, state data show.
About 51% of all registered Democrats from the age of 18 to 34 cast a ballot during the primary.
By comparison, about 37% of registered Republicans in the same bracket cast ballots and 24% of young unaffiliated voters in the same age group voted in the primary.
Young Democrats turned out at higher rate than the overall percentage of young adults who cast a ballot on Aug. 2 according to the data.
Overall, 35% of all young adults from 18 to 34 cast a ballot during the August primary, which was still the lowest turnout rate of any age group measured.
But Democrats turned out more voters than Republicans during the primary in every age group except two brackets older than 55 years old, according to the data. Consider:
- Ages 35-44: Democrats, 57%, Republicans 48.2%.
- Ages 45-54: Democrats, 57.2%, Republicans, 54.9%
- Ages 55-64: Democrats, 59.4%, Republicans, 63.3%
- Ages: 65 and up: Democrats, 64.3%, Republicans, 68.8%
Similar disparities were seen in some of the state’s largest counties.
For instance:
- In Wyandotte County, about 38% of Democratic voters 18 to 34 turned out on Aug. 2 compared to 30% of Republican voters. The amendment was defeated in Wyandotte County with 74% of the vote.
- In Johnson County, about 59% of Democratic voters 18 to 34 turned out on Aug. 2 compared to about 42% of Republican voters. The amendment was defeated in Johnson County with 69% of the vote.
- In Douglas County, about 58% of Democratic voters 18 to 34 turned out on Aug. 2 compared to about 36% of Republican voters. The amendment was defeated in Douglas County with 82% of the vote.
- In Sedgwick County, about 50% of Democratic voters 18 to 34 turned out on Aug. 2 compared to about 39% of Republican voters. The amendment was defeated in Douglas County with 58% of the vote.
Supporters of the amendment attributed the amendment’s loss to the fact that only weeks earlier the U.S. Supreme Court reversed Roe v. Wade.
“From our perspective, this all comes down to the Dobbs ruling,” Kansans for Life spokeswoman Danielle Underwood said, alluding to the Mississippi case that led to Roe being reversed just weeks before Kansas voters would decide on the abortion amendment.
“People were just barely beginning to process what that meant, and then Kansans were all of a sudden asked to vote on something,” Underwood said in a radio interview with conservative talk-show host Pete Mundo shortly after the vote.
“Unfortunately, the opposition utilized that opportunity, that confusion that was already just swirling about and injected all types of fear into their rhetoric.”
To that extent, young Democrats were charged to get out and vote, said Tony Bergida, chair of the Kansas Young Republicans.
He said young Republicans, too, saw an increase in turnout even if Democrats were more driven because of the Supreme Court case.
“Because Roe v. Wade had just been overturned with the Dobbs’ decision, there was a lot of momentum on the left side heading into the cycle,” Bergida said.
“They had a huge motivator coming into the election,” he said. “Curious to see if it translates to November moving forward.”
What it means for next month’s general election is a topic for debate, with some candidates running this year hoping they can convert the loss of the abortion amendment to wins at the ballot box.
Experts note that young adults don’t vote as monolith and there’s a difference between voting on an issue and deciding on a candidate.
In Kansas, for instance, 50% of the 18-29 age bracket supported former President Donald Trump in 2020 while 45% supported President Joe Biden, according to researchers at Tufts University.
“I think it’s great the these new voters did turn out this year because it means they will probably vote in future elections,” said Helena Buchmann, the field director for the campaign that opposed the constitutional amendment.
“I think it really speaks to the way voters felt empowered because they were voting on an issue, not on a candidate,” Buchmann said.
“We hear this every year that young people are disenchanted with the political process and the two-party system, but this is not that question.
“It was a direct referendum on the issue.”
At 32 years old, Democratic state Rep. Brandon Woodard of Lenexa said he had gotten accustomed to complacency among his peers turning out to vote.
This time it was different, he said.
“I was surprised by the number of friends and colleagues my age or younger who normally have to be dragged kicking and screaming to a polling booth who by the time we had reached out to them had already voted,” Woodard said.
Woodard said what happened on Aug. 2 is indicative of a growing trend in which young voters are increasingly engaged in issues that matter to them, whether that’s climate change or protecting abortion rights.
“I think where young people are at right now is realizing that when they show up, they can be a big voice,” he said.
Kansas has seen more and more young voters turning out to vote in recent years, but will it be enough to offset the voting tendencies of older voters in the general election?
Go back to 2014 – the year former Gov. Sam Brownback was reelected – and just 13% of voters ages 18 to 24 years old cast a ballot in that general election, census data shows.
Turnout for young adults paled in comparison to older voters who turned out in a much larger percentage as Republicans kept their lock on state government.
In 2016, about 34% of Kansas voters from 18 to 24 years old participated in the general election, census data shows. It was one of the lowest rates in the country.
By 2020, it had grown 14 percentage points to 48.4%, one of the highest percentage increases in the nation, census data shows.
Younger voters in Kansas have narrowed the voting gap with seniors, but there is still a large chasm.
For instance, there was about a 53 percentage point disparity between voters in the 18-to-24-year-old age bracket and voters 65 and older in 2014.
By 2020, the gap had narrowed, but it was still substantial at about 27 percentage points.
Even in this primary, there was still about a 27 percentage point gap in the turnout between the youngest age bracket and the senior bracket.
Woodard believes that young voters will return after casting ballots in the primary.
“They voted and they won, which absolutely means they’re showing up again in November,” Woodard said.
“In conversations I’ve had with newly registered voters, it is translating to votes,” he said.
“Does it translates to Democratic votes?” he asked “That would be worth $1 million if I knew the answer.”
