(Updated to reflect new diversity numbers)
Eighty Kansas counties lost population in the last decade as newly released census data provided the first look at how new election districts could be redrawn as lawmakers near an end to a series of public hearings across the state.
The new census data released on Thursday showed that 25 of Kansas’ 105 counties gained population since 2010, giving the state about 2.9 million people.
It was only expected that 15 Kansas counties would see growth based on the 2019 census estimates.
Growing at a clip of about 3%, it was the slowest population growth in Kansas since the 1930s, when the state actually lost population during the Depression.
The state’s population, which now ranks 35th nationally, increased about 6.1% from 2000 to 2010.
The population in Kansas rose by 8.5% in the 1990s, 4.8% in the 1980s and 5.1% in the 1970s.
While the decline in growth for Kansas has been steady for years, it has shown a more pronounced drop-off during the last decade, when there was an effort to cut income taxes to spur the economy.
Population growth has been a trickle for most of the 2010s, growing from about 2.85 million in 2010 to about 2.94 million this year.
The latest population numbers for Kansas reflect a trend that’s been playing out for years in a state with an aging population, a record low birthrate and a lack of people moving into the state in robust numbers.
The numbers show that Kansas is more diverse than it was a decade ago.
About 72% of the state’s population was white compared to about 78% in 2010.
The Hispanic population, meanwhile, increased to about 13% in 2020 from about 10.5% a decade ago.
The state’s African American population fell from 5.7% in 2010 to 5.6% this year.
And the state’s Asian population increased to 2.9% from 2.3% in 2010.
Most of the growth last decade was concentrated in the eastern portion of the state, especially in Johnson County, which grew by 12.1% while adding 65,684 people.
It was estimated last year that Johnson County would grow by 10.7%.
Likewise, Douglas, Leavenworth and Wyandotte counties also grew. Douglas was up 7.2%, Wyandotte County increased 7.5% and Leavenworth rose 7.4%.
Wyandotte and Leavenworth came in higher than their 2019 estimates, while Douglas came in at about 3 percentage points less than the estimate.
The mushrooming population in Johnson County could potentially lead to the county getting three more House seats and one Senate seat in an area that has been trending more Democratic in recent years.
The growth in Wyandotte and Johnson counties, meanwhile, could make it difficult, if not impossible, for preserving the current boundaries of the 3rd Congressional District represented by Democrat Sharice Davids, who has been targeted by Republicans.
The population in the 3rd District is about 792,000, or roughly 58,000 more than the targeted population of 734,000 for the district.
The new population data shows Wyandotte and Johnson counties with a combined population of about 780,000, making it nearly impossible to keep the two counties completely intact when new election lines are drawn.
Data crunched by Wichita State political scientist Brian Amos shows that Congressman Tracey Mann’s 1st District is about 34,000 below the targeted population, and U.S. Rep. Jake LaTurner’s 2nd District is about 21,000 below the mark.
Both districts potentially could stand to gain population carved off from other districts as lawmakers start redrawing election boundaries.
The 4th District represented by U.S. Rep. Ron Estes is has about 731,000 people.
A number of rural Kansas counties that were expected to lose population at the end of the decade actually grew with the final census numbers.
Geary County, for instance, was expected to lose about 8% of its population at the end of 2019. It ended up seeing population growth of 6.9%.
Kearny County also was estimated to see a 3.5% decline as of 2019 but ended up seeng a neglible increase of about 0.2%, the data shows.
Scott County, too, was expected to see a 2.3% decline based on estimates and still saw population jump 4.4% when the new results came out.
Pottawatomie recorded the largest percentage increase in population during the last decade with a 17.3% rise in population with the addition of about 3,700 people.
Johnson County added the most people followed by Sedgwick County with 25,459, Wyandotte County with 11,740, Douglas with 7,959 and Leavenworth County with 5,654.
The areas losing population were spread across the state, mostly in parts of rural Kansas that have been bleeding population for decades.
Here is a look at the Kansas counties that have seen the biggest percentage increases during the last decade along with their population in the new census numbers:
Pottawatomie, 17.3%, 25,348
Johnson, 12.1%, 609,863
Wyandotte, 7.5%, 169,245
Leavenworth County, 7.4%, 81,881
Douglas County, 7.2%, 118,785
Geary County, 6.9%, 36,739
Sedgwick County, 5.1%, 523,824
Finney County, 4.6%, 38,470
Scott County, 4.4%, 5,151
Miami County, 4.3%, 34,191
Now a look at the counties with the biggest percentage declines since 2010 along with their current population in the new census numbers.
Morton, 16.46%, 2,701
Elk, 13.84%, 2,483
Ness, 13.52%, 2,687
Barber, 13.02%, 4,228
Phillips, 11.72%, 4,981
Meade, 11.37%, 4,055
Montgomery, 11.23%, 31,486
Haskell, 11.18%, 3,780
Comanche, 10.7%, 1,689
Rush, 10.61%, 2,956
Below a look at other areas of the state with their percentage population change followed by their current population:
Butler, up 2.3%, 67,380
Crawford County, down 0.4%, 38,972
Ford County, up 1.3%, 34,287
Reno County, down 4.1%, 61,898
Riley County, up 1.2%, 71,959
Saline County, down 2.34%, 54,303
Lyon County, down 4.5%, 32,179
Ellis County, up 1.7%, 28,934
McPherson, up 3.57%, 30,223.